.. 0 which is neutral. We moved from a -6 to a 0 with all three indices gaining points on having a higher raw index value, but that value was not greater on any of the indices than 5 days ago, so the moving averages all score a -1 for a total of -3 which added to the +3 for increasing bar strength yields a 0.
If the NYSE can show up for a follow through day than this indicator will start to turn to the bull side.
The world did not play nice last night while we slept. In Asia while Australia was marginally in the green the Hong Kong closed down a solid 1% and Japan erased what was a nice 1% gain to fall apart in the closing hour to close red. Not a strong showing from Asia.
Currently Europe is awash in a sea of red. The major indices the FTSE in the UK is hovering close to the -1% area, the DAX about 1/2 of that at .56% negative which pretty much defines the range.
Econ numbers overnight were not terrible except for the retail numbers out of Great Britain at 4:00 am this morning showing a -.30% increase in retail where they had expected a growth of .5%, that is almost at 1% swing to the negative side. Clearly now there is some softening in the "first to emerge" nations of Europe. That puts a string of numbers together from Great Britain, Germany and France that have been consistently falling outside the range of expectations and recovery. The question is are they leading us now or is it the other way around.
The DXY gained over 1% from a 4pm close yesterday until the early morning hours. The reason for the huge daily gain lies in the continuing unwinding of the dollar carry trade. It appears to be related to the Fed meeting although I have not read exactly what has triggered the sudden momentum increase but the direction is definitely toward a stronger dollar. I talked in the weekend update video a little about the dollar.
We have our own numbers to work through at 8:30am which is the Jobless Claims. Fed-X released some encouraging numbers this morning lending more evidence that the US economy is bouncing from its bottom. It has plenty of stimulus now so let's see how hot it can ignite.
The futures trade only one way now, counter to the DXY. The DXY is up 1% the futures are down 1%. At some point, at least if the bulls want to take it to the next level, those shackles need to be broken. The futures down 1% today premarket open will be tough on our indicators and will zap buyers strength to take us to new highs.
We will wait for the 8:30 news to fix the market open and then wait until 10am to see how the market reacts to the gap.
See you in the Markets!
-RLT
