Surprised at the 52 Week New High indicators

The real reason I go through the hassle of publishing my charts is to force me to examine them and “see” what they have to say.  On Friday at the close I thought the 52 week new highs had pretty much established their bearishness along with all the other indicators. On re-examination today for this post I noticed that we missed by only a couple of New Highs from going neutral and from just 4 new highs from turning the sell signal into a buy signal. That is interesting, especially on a weak half-day. Wednesday closed the New Highs average at 107 and Friday was 108.

Last Wednesday the NAZ triggered a buy signal of the new highs, on Friday’s close the signal turned from buy to neutral.  I fully expected a full out sell signal based on the weakness.  Again a little amazed that we are not on a flat out sell on the NAZ.

Both the NYSE’s and NAZ’s signal are impressive in that we only put in half a day of trading.  We wait anxiously on Monday now to see how these signals will setup.

Monday’s target bars are quite low with the NYSE having to put in only 50 New Highs to start to turn the indicator.  Any green on Monday and we could easily do that.

New 52 Week High Bonus Chart:

Today I am going to throw in a bonus chart.  I have read some blogs and seen some emails that have mentioned the fact that we just made new market highs on lower 52 week new high numbers.  That was represented as being bearish. This is not necessarily true.  We did the same thing toward the end of August only to get one big thrust to propel us up to even higher highs along with higher 52 week new highs.

I am not saying that is what is happening here but to realize that the “missing” new highs could also be thought of as stored potential energy ready to rejoin the current new highs to propel both indices to a new yearly high.  The charts do look ragged in here and we need to watch the our 5 DMA to see what happens over the next couple of days.

-RLT

 

Zweig 10 day A/D looking towards the weak-side.

The Zweig is heading back yet once again to the oversold area where in my opinion it needs to get to in order to put together a final possible push into the end of the year.  Monday will be an exciting day, either more selling, bottoming or a rejection of Dubai as a problem.  The US $ is still worthy of a watch on our screens.

 

Our week-ending 10 Day High – Low for the NYSE finally looks like it is correcting after almost 10 days on a confusing sell signal, price finally followed through to the downside.

Dubai or not Dubai that is the question.  Would the market not have sold off except for the Dubai news? On Monday we will get our answer but overall the market was ready to correct.

Now I begin looking for a bottom and an eventual buy signal hopping for a thrust like in the past corrections.  Or this time will we find out that this is it for the year and just sell off our profits?

The markets need to get down to that –50% level on this indicator to satisfy the bears with some cash and to entice the bulls to come in for some more so short term view 3 days out is more weakness.

 

Our 40 DMA % Index went from being our only bullish signal on Thursday into a sell signal by the time the markets were closed early on Friday.

Compare this chart to the last one published.  You can see a history of this chart by selection 40 DMA % Index in the upper right corner under charts.  That should produce an archive of past charts if I am doing it right…. more to come..

I will be posting my weekly charts as the day goes on.  Sometime tomorrow (Sunday) I will wrap up a conclusion for the next 3 to 5 days giving my extend forecast for the week.  Take a look at each chart as they are published and let me know what you think the week has in store.

-RLT